Economists have practically sounded the all-clear on a looming recession, but plenty of signs are still flashing red.
Clearly, economists were wrong earlier this year when they forecast an economic contraction that has yet to manifest. Could they be wrong now?
To be sure, economic growth, the labor market and consumer spending have proven unexpectedly resilient in the face of rising interest rates and elevated inflation. But there are still plenty of signs a recession might still be on its way.
1. An “uncertain outlook” from leading indicators
Many mainstay economic indicators measure the past. So-called leading indicators reflect what likely lies ahead.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index for July marked its 16th consecutive drop and its longest losing streak since the run-up to the Great Recession in 2007 and 2008.