Most U.S. and Taiwanese experts polled in a new survey say China lacks the capabilities to effectively carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan but is well-positioned to execute a blockade.

Why it matters: China’s growing aggression towards Taiwan has made the region a dangerous potential flashpoint and could trigger a military conflict between the U.S. and China.

Details: The survey, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) China Power Project and Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, polled 52 U.S. experts and 35 Taiwanese experts.

  • Just 26% of U.S. experts and 17% of Taiwanese experts agreed China has the military capability to effectively launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next five years.
  • One reason for this assessment is that an “amphibious invasion would require a much larger commitment of military forces than a quarantine or blockade, and the operations involved would be significantly more complicated,” according to the CSIS report.