A few years ago, it seemed China’s position in the Middle East was secure. Beijing successfully brokered the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, creating the tantalizing possibility of a breakthrough peace deal and the diplomatic prestige long sought by China. The gargantuan scope of China’s demand for oil made it the region’s largest energy consumer by far, generating considerable theoretical leverage. Iran’s proxies and asymmetric networks gave a Chinese partner considerable influence and means to act. Concurrently, successive U.S. Presidents failed to influence local energy production while America’s domestic energy production climbed, further decreasing America’s interventionist incentives.

 

Well, it turns out such a position wasn’t as secure as Chairman Xi hoped. Hegemony is hard. China has discovered that one marginalizes geopolitics and regional rivalries at their peril. Regional flashpoints have now put China in an awkward position. China must balance competing mutually exclusive desires: regional peace to keep exports flowing, the aspirations of upstart geopolitical actors, an outward commitment to avoid military deployments, and the confidence in Beijing held by competing entities.

China’s Energy Demand

 

Xi Jinping considers Chinese energy security a key plank in his policy platform. In January this year, China unveiled its first nationwide energy law aiming to synchronize disparate local policies as a part of Xi’s energy agenda. This obsession with energy is why China is so invested in many energy-adjacent projects from critical minerals and electric vehicles to nuclear reactors. Energy is seen both as a developmental tool and an area where China can surpass Western competitors and as a national security priority.