In a war with the U.S. over Taiwan, China would need to create a global network of companies under U.S. sanctions, seize American assets within its borders, and issue gold-denominated bonds, according to Chinese government-affiliated researchers studying the Western response to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
The sanctions against Moscow have prompted hundreds of Chinese economists, financiers, and geopolitical analysts to examine how China should mitigate extreme scenarios, including loss of access to U.S. dollars, according to a Reuters review of more than 200 Chinese-language policy papers and academic articles published since February 2022.
“In the context of intensified Sino-U.S. strategic competition and the Taiwan Strait conflict, we should be wary of the U.S. replicating this financial sanction model against China,” wrote Chen Hongxiang, a researcher at a branch of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in eastern Jiangsu province.
China, he said, should “prepare for a rainy day” to ensure its financial and economic stability.
The specificity of the scenarios and potential countermeasures are being reported for the first time by Reuters.