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Europe is collapsing. What happens next?

By Todd Davis

Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinion on ScoonTV.

European influence has been prominent in American culture and traditions ever since England, Spain, and France colonized North America. America has traded with Europe, fought as allies, and established a world order centered around America and the EU. Recent events, primarily economic sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia, have backfired. This has left European nations on the verge of economic and political collapse. America will soon be confronted by an almost unthinkable question: can the disintegration of Europe be prevented? If not, what happens next?

British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned last week, bringing an end to her turbulent tenure. Her term lasted 45 days, the shortest in the history of Great Britain. Liz Truss, by most accounts, was a completely unqualified politician whose sole attribute of merit appeared to be a steadfast commitment to the war in Ukraine. Two British Prime Ministers have now been arguably brought down by, among other things, the unlimited economic support sent to Ukraine and the sanctions on Russian energy that have devastated European economies.

The British government is no longer economically solvent. They are faced with two choices; roll back sanctions on Russia, cut off aid to Ukraine, and repair the economy or stay the course and continue pretending a Deus ex Machina will occur that will save the nation.

Considering the stakes, the assumption would be that Britain chooses the first option, but they won’t. Aside from the Baltic states, Britain has been the largest war hawk in NATO. They seem to be functioning in a reality where it is still 1914 and Britain is a global superpower backed by an overseas colonial empire. There is no easy exit strategy for Britain from the Ukrainian conflict without enduring a tremendous loss of prestige.

Yet, one must imagine two regime changes in 45 days has done incredible damage to the British brand. The infamous colonizers now themselves look like a Banana Republic, considering the Liz Truss ouster has begun to look like an internal coup. The nation of Rule Britannia stretching from Queen Elizabeth I through Victoria and past Churchill is gone. 

One would think the prominent British elite would recognize this and do something. Patriotic Britons might try to reverse economic catastrophe, but the political class and wealthy elites within the country don’t think of themselves as Britons. No, they are globalists. Putting country over globalism is considered archaic, a plebian identity that has no place in their world. Identifying as British is beneath them, it is for the industrial working class in Liverpool and Manchester. 

That an industrial working class barely exists doesn’t concern them. The middle class is on life support lacking jobs, influence, and political power. People in Liverpool are not deciding Liz Truss’ replacement, the political elite are. Bitter over Brexit, which the elites rightly saw as a repudiation of their globalist policy, they have been intent on overturning all vestiges of the decision and brutally punishing the population for daring to buck their world order. The goal of these elites looks more and more like the complete demoralization of the British public so they will be too neutered by economic pain to ever challenge the system again.

Germany is likely in even worse shape than Britain. The nation is almost completely reliant on Russian energy. Germany faces a desperate crisis this winter that will cripple industry within the country and require heat rationing among the populace. Germany is another country that would, under sane conditions, reverse course and end economic sanctions on Russia. Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock disagrees, having recently said, “We stand with Ukraine as long as they need us, no matter what my German voters think.” Like Britain, the political class in Germany doesn’t care what its people think or how much they suffer from the economic decisions politicians are making. 

Manipulation of this reality was never more on display than the attack on the Nord Steam pipelines. President Joe Biden promised Nord Stream would be taken down if Russia didn’t do what the United States wanted in regard to Ukraine. On February 7th, Biden said, “If Russia invades – that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again – then there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.” Those are Biden’s exact words.

When a President says something like that and then there is a terrorist attack, the single largest state-sponsored terror attack on civilian infrastructure in the history of the modern world, it isn’t a conspiracy theory to believe the man followed through on his word.

Make no mistake, the attack on Nord Steam is an act of terror. By definition, terrorism is an act of violence to achieve a political outcome. If it’s true the US was behind this, then they’ve made Germany dependent on US policy. Germany has done this in spades. There was barely a protest over this incredible act of political nihilism. Germany’s political class is committed to following this economic suicide all the way down the long road of financial ruin.

When the EU imposed economic sanctions on Russia, it stated that Russian energy would be easy to replace. That hasn’t been the case. Most of the world has refused to acknowledge what amounts to NATO sanctions on Russia. When the EU stopped purchasing oil and gas from Russia, countries like India, China, and Indonesia started buying record amounts. 

Suddenly, they were getting first-trade rights on Russian energy and were only too happy to take advantage of the new paradigm. European elites made the erroneous calculator that energy was an infinite resource and that they could simply remove Russian energy from the market. That is impossible because energy is a finite resource that will always have more demand than supply. One struggles to understand how the Harvard-educated economic MBAs who make these calculations could come to this conclusion.

Even worse, the world is slowly coalescing in opposition to Europe taking positions that are either neutral or downright hostile. There was a much-publicized rebuke of Washington and the EU by OPEC when it cut oil production by 2 billion barrels a day. This comes after President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia and made a personal appeal to them.

OPEC isn’t alone in this regard. Qatar and Nigeria have both told the EU they won’t supply them with energy. Nations long looked down upon and labeled “third world” by the EU now, for perhaps the first time ever, have an economic and political advantage over Europe. Centuries of resentment over colonial policy and exploitation are coming to the surface and modern Europe is going to pay the bill. There will be no help from the global South.

Liquified natural gas (LNG) delivered from America to Europe was touted as the early solution to the energy crisis. However, transportation was more expensive than anticipated and the United States has a limited supply due to the Biden administration’s hostile energy policy toward the fossil fuel industry. LNG that is sold to Europe is done so at a huge price markup because it is a seller’s market and Europe has no other options. 

Prices on LNG rose by 1094% in August alone. French President Emmanuel Macron said on October 23rd, “American gas is 3-4 times cheaper on the domestic market than the price at which they offer it to Europeans. These are double standards.” He also said that US-made policy “left Europe with no option other than paying the demanded price.” 

That’s an interesting statement as it was EU policy and sanctions that began this downward spiral. Is Macron insinuating that it was American policy that the EU implemented? Macron also appears to finally understand what an untenable position Europe now finds itself mired in.

American energy industrialists are positioned to make a fortune over the next year as these globalist policies go into effect. In fact, the longer the conflict in Ukraine goes, the more money they will make. The working poor in Germany, Britain, and France might be crushed by energy prices. However, the global elites within those countries, who no longer view themselves as citizens of the nations in which they reside, will make record profits.

Western policy in reaction to Covid-19 facilitated one of the greatest transfers of wealth to the 1% we have ever seen. This manufactured energy crisis will rival that. Populations will be crushed under the weight of these decisions. German manufacturing has already discussed moving to America after their production is likely to be cut in half by energy rationing. America will benefit economically while its so-called allies in Europe are gutted.

What is the ultimate end of these policies? A broken, poor, disillusioned electorate in Europe might be easier to control, but at what cost? European nations will be allies in name only. They will essentially function as colonies completely dependent on the United States. From a perverse nihilistic perspective, this state of affairs might be advantageous to global elites. Power will be centralized economically and politically around the dollar (the Euro is being destroyed by this policy and the dollar is now stronger than it’s been for decades), but if you are ruling over a wasteland of ruptured countries that no longer have economic viability, what kind of empire is that? How is that sustainable?

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is in the process of making historic geopolitical alliances. Saudi Arabia and China came to an accord to align their energy cooperation last week. This is the first time in five decades these two countries have cooperated to such an extent. Sensing blood in the water and the fragmentation of NATO economic power, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has moved closer to Russia. Russia and Turkey are making economic decisions together and acting like allies. A Russia-Turkey-Iran alliance may become a reality. Russia, China, and India participated in the Vostok war games this summer. The historic Samarkand Summit this fall resulted in strategic planning for joint expansion of mutual trade, infrastructure, and industrial development. The world is forming alliances and making strategic decisions without Europe.

What then does a world look like without Europe holding the reins of social, economic, and military power? General Mark Milley recently said, “If Ukraine falls, the rules-based international world order will fall.” Rules-based is code for policy decisions that America wants. And yet, Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said when the GOP takes the House in the November midterms aid to Ukraine will be cut off. 

Without American aid, Ukraine will be forced to surrender. Even if McCarthy is unable to follow through with his commitment and completely cut off aid, it is fairly certain the Republicans will no longer give Biden a blank check to keep spending billions in Ukraine. Europe simply doesn’t have the economic resources to continue this conflict. Waging war is extremely expensive for NATO-based weapons systems. European countries would be unable to finance their own armies with their economies devastated. The United States would have to bankroll them. Even if it did, at some point the populations in Britain, France, Germany, and other countries will reach their breaking point. 

When you deprive people of economic viability and their political voice, revolution is the inevitable result. Both the Russian and French revolutions came about in part due to government inference in foreign wars that led to ruinous economic consequences. Once we reach that point of no return, the globalists will realize that while they no longer believe in nationalism, the people do. Those people will follow whatever leader promises to make Europe great again, no matter where that leads.

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Todd Davis

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