Just when US automakers and the broader economy were shaking off the effects of the pandemic and semiconductor shortages, a long strike by the United Auto Workers union could bring higher inflation and economic damage.

A strike against General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV of just 10 days would reduce US gross domestic product by $5.6 billion and likely push the Michigan economy into a recession, according to Anderson Economic Group, an economic consultancy based in Lansing, Mich. It could also make some car models scarce and push prices up after they started coming down from record levels.