Not since the early weeks of the pandemic have Americans been this certain that unemployment will spike.

Consumers surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March put a 44% probability on the nation’s jobless rate being higher a year later, marking the highest level since April 2020.

The New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations data released Monday added more glum outlooks to the growing pile of sour sentiment readings from Americans at a time when unpredictable federal policies have caused uncertainty and recession fears to spike.

The March survey also showed that people are growing increasingly insecure about their own job security: The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year rose to 15.7%, a 12-month high.

Despite a slew of downbeat sentiment surveys (considered “soft” data because of their subjectivity), the “hard,” more definitive and objective data continues to show resilience in the broader economy.

Through March, the US job market remained on solid footing, continuing a more than four-year streak of employment gains. The labor market has helped provide the foundation for strong consumer spending and continued economic growth.