Republican Sen. Rick Scott enters his 2024 re-election bid as the heavy favorite in the race at a moment when Democrats in Florida have never been weaker.

Incumbents usually come in with something of an advantage. But in Scott’s case, he’s going up against a Florida Democratic Party that has not won a Senate race since 2012, and it’s coming off a midterm election cycle that saw Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis win by nearly 20 points in what many viewed as a rock-bottom moment for the party.

That problem for Democrats is most clearly seen through the rewired makeup of the state’s electorate.

Last time Scott was on the ballot, in 2018, Democrats had a nearly 270,000-voter registration advantage, a number that has flipped to a more than 400,000-voter advantage for Republicans after the GOP poured millions of dollars into registration efforts in recent years.