Has Zelensky Run Out of Time?

By Nikola Mikovic

 

Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinion on ScoonTV

From the United States’ perspective, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is a major obstacle to reaching a peace deal with Russia and ending the conflict that erupted in 2022. Zelensky and his team, on the other hand, seem to have a clear strategy — to drag out the negotiation process for years, hoping to simply outlast US President Donald Trump. But is time really on Zelensky’s side?

Ukraine’s leader came to power in 2019, promising to end the Donbas war that broke out in 2014, following the Euromaidan protests in Kyiv, which resulted in the overthrow of the allegedly pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Three years later, the conflict in Ukraine’s coal-rich eastern region, which has been under effective Russian control since 2014, escalated. The ongoing Russian invasion of the Eastern European country is essentially a continuation of the Donbas war.

But unlike in 2019, Zelensky now does not seem too eager to end the war that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides. It is Trump, rather than Ukraine’s leader, who appears determined to freeze the conflict almost at any cost. In the coming months and years, his administration’s foreign policy priorities could very well focus on Iran and potentially China, which is why he aims to put the Ukraine conflict “on hold.” Although such a policy might serve American national interests, it does not necessarily serve Ukraine’s interests and Zelensky’s political ambitions.

Why Martial Law in Ukraine Matters

The Eastern European nation’s leader is fully aware that any peace deal with Russia would lead to the lifting of martial law, which was imposed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The problem for Kyiv is that, as soon as the country’s borders are open, dozens, if not hundreds of thousands, of men would immediately leave Ukraine. Such an outcome would result in serious demographic, economic, and military problems for the war-torn nation.

That is one of the reasons why Zelensky is not particularly interested in ending the war under Trump’s terms. Moreover, a frozen conflict could also mean the end of his reign, as the Ukrainian Parliament – Verkhovna Rada – would have to lift martial law and call for new elections. Under the current circumstances, where Russia controls around 20 percent of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, any agreement with Moscow would be seen as Zelensky’s defeat. As a result, he could easily lose the election to a “hardliner” – whether it be Valery Zaluzhny, his major rival and the current Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, or someone else.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Zelensky continues to resist Trump’s pressure to reach a deal with Russia. Given that he is firmly backed by the European Union, the United Kingdom, and potentially even some influential circles among the ruling American elite, he seems to be seeking to prolong the negotiations and buy time.

Zelensky’s Choice: Peace or Losing More Territory

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s statement that “President Donald Trump’s patience is wearing very thin with Zelensky” suggests that policymakers in Washington are conscious of Ukraine’s leader’s ambitions. Trump has even openly warned Zelensky that he can “have peace or he can fight for another three years before losing the whole country.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined in, saying that if the U.S.-led talks fail,

Ukraine may receive tougher peace terms from Russia in the future.

Zelensky, however, seems to rely on European, rather than American, support. According to reports, German weapon manufacturers Rheinmetall, Diehl Defence, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, and MBDA have, over the past three years, together added more than 16,500 employees, an increase of more than 40 per cent. They also plan to hire roughly 12,000 more by 2026. Such measures, along with other European countries’ increased defense spending, could mean that Europe is not only willing to arm and fund Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” but is also preparing for direct military confrontation with Russia.

“European politicians and the military want to be ready to fight against us already in 2030,” Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu said on April 24.

But given that Moscow, three years after launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has destroyed most of what Europe and America has sent into Ukraine, and Europe has repeatedly shown it cannot send troops or high-tech weapons into Ukraine without US assistance or approval, it is rather questionable whether Europe could sustain a war effort in Ukraine without robust American support. Europe certainly wants the war to go on (and to keep the Americans involved), but without Trump’s approval, this seems difficult if not impossible. 

Putin’s Victory

The Kremlin is undoubtedly trying to develop an exit strategy, since the war has dragged on for too long and Russia has achieved what it wanted from the Special Military Operation. Russia doesn’t particularly want to go all the way to Kyiv and have to deal with installing a puppet regime on a hostile population. It sees the Trump administration as a crucial partner in this game, as both Moscow and Washington appear to aim not necessarily to end, but at least to freeze the conflict in the Eastern European country. The American leader has reportedly signaled that he could make some concessions to Putin.

For instance, the United States would de jure recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as well as its de facto control over Ukraine’s Luhansk oblast, and parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson regions. In exchange, the Kremlin would have to allow the United States to establish control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, return parts of the Kharkiv region, as well as the strategically important Kinburn Spit. It would also have to enable Ukraine to enjoy unhindered passage on the Dnieper River.

Although Putin might be willing to accept parts of Trump’s proposal – even though it could be interpreted as a sign of weakness in some circles in Russia – there is no guarantee. Russia is winning on the battlefield and has taken a hard line in negotiations. There is also no guarantee that Zelensky will accept the proposal even if Putin agrees. Kyiv and the EU have already said that they will not accept Moscow’s incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation. On the other hand, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko stressed that “Ukraine may have to give up land for peace.”

“One of the scenarios is… to give up territory. It’s not fair. But for peace, temporary peace, maybe it can be a solution, temporary,” Klitschko said on April 25.

His rhetoric suggests that Ukraine might eventually agree to freeze the conflict, only to resume fighting once Trump’s term in the White House expires. Kyiv, unlike Moscow, has a clear and broadly understandable goal – whether realistic or not – to restore its sovereignty over all territories currently under Russian control. A potential peace deal would allow Ukraine, with Zelensky or someone else in power, to prepare for another round of fighting.

However, given that Kyiv’s European backers do not seem to support Trump’s proposal, it remains highly uncertain if Moscow and Kyiv will reach a lasting ceasefire deal anytime soon. And Moscow is certainly aware of this, making it unlikely Russia accepts any ceasefire that would allow Europe and America to flood Ukraine with weapons to resume the conflict five years from now. 

Russia Does Not Seek Zelensky’s Resignation

One thing is for sure, though: as long as the active phase of the Ukraine conflict goes on, Zelensky has a very high chance of staying in power. Putin, who promised his Israeli partners in 2023 not to kill the Ukrainian leader, might not see Zelensky as a legitimate president of Ukraine, but is doing nothing to remove him from power. Even the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently stressed that Zelensky’s resignation is “not among Russia’s demands regarding Ukraine,” although he pointed out that any documents signed by him “could be challenged due to his illegitimacy.”

Since he feels no serious threat from the Kremlin, Zelensky can freely order the Ukrainian military to continue killing Russian generals. On April 25, Ukraine killed Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik, Deputy Head of the Russian General Staff’s Operational Directorate, in a car explosion in Balashikha near Moscow. Over the past three years, Ukraine’s Security Service has assassinated dozens of Russian political and intelligence figures. The Kremlin never seriously responded to Ukrainian actions. Moreover, to this day, Russia refuses to recognize Ukraine as a “terrorist state,” although it often describes Kyiv’s moves as “acts of terrorism.”

Thus, it is Trump, rather than Putin, whom Zelensky has far more reasons to fear. His ability to balance external pressures and his political survival could determine the fate of Ukraine. There is a pervading sense of malaise about Ukraine in the United States. Trump doesn’t like Zelensky, and it is hard to see the President continuing this frustrating game of negotiations for four more years.

At the recent funeral of Pope Francis, Zelensky was lauded by the European dignitaries where whereas Trump was met with silence. For someone with Trump’s power and ego, this is the type of thing that lingers and sticks with the President. Regardless of other factors, Zelensky seems to have run out of time with Trump, and that is a perilous position to be in.  

 

 

Curtis Scoon is the founder of ScoonTv.com Download the ScoonTv App to join our weekly livestream every Tuesday @ 8pm EST!