The oil market faced a rude awakening this week after Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile attack against Israel, briefly sending crude prices more than 5% higher Tuesday after a period of sleepy trading.

For months now, traders have largely dismissed the risk of a supply disruption in the Middle East. Instead, bearish sentiment swept the market in September as investors increasingly fear a surplus next year due to softening demand in China and increased production from OPEC+.

The expanding war in the Middle East, however, has reached a new boiling point as Israel has vowed a “painful” response to Iran’s attack. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could take aim at the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure in retaliation, geopolitical and crude market analysts say.