Jerome Powell’s Message to Trump
By Quinn Que
The Fed Stands Firm on Independence
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinion on ScoonTV
As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell navigates the complex economic landscape of 2025, one message remains clear in his approach to President Donald Trump’s persistent demands for interest rate cuts: the Federal Reserve must maintain its independence to fulfill its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
While Powell has generally avoided direct confrontation with the administration, his actions and carefully crafted statements convey a resolute stance that economic data, not political pressure, will guide monetary policy decisions. We can understand this better by analyzing not just his agency’s actions, but Powell’s prepared remarks and responses at public appearances.
Standing His Ground Against Presidential Pressure
President Trump has been pushing aggressively for lower rates, claiming on Truth Social that there is “NO INFLATION” and demanding immediate cuts. Meanwhile, Chair Powell has remained firm for weeks that the central bank won’t be bullied into cutting interest rates before economic conditions warrant such action. Powell, without directly addressing the president, has sent a clear message during his recent appearances: the Fed moves at its own pace, guided by data rather than political pressure.
During his April speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell emphasized the Fed’s independence, stating,
For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater [economic] clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.
This stance directly contradicts Trump’s impatient calls for rate reductions.
Powell’s message between the lines is obvious: the Fed won’t be rushed into premature rate cuts simply because the president is demanding them on social media. The central bank remains focused on its dual mandate, not on political expediency.
The State of the Economy vs Trump’s Wishcasting
Powell has recently highlighted the significant uncertainty created by the new administration’s economic approach. “The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation,” Powell noted in his Chicago speech.
The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.
In what could be interpreted as a warning about Trump’s tariff policies, Powell emphasized that “tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation.” Cutting rates now, as Trump demands, would be pouring gasoline on this inflationary fire, precisely when the economy is still rebalancing from the COVID-era quantitative easing that flooded markets with liquidity.
Despite Trump’s claims that inflation is non-existent, Powell painted a more nuanced picture. “Inflation has significantly eased from its pandemic highs of mid-2022,” he acknowledged in his February testimony to Congress. However, he noted that recent readings “remain above our 2 percent objective,” with total PCE prices rising 2.3% over the 12 months ending in March.
This directly contradicts Trump’s assertion that inflation has disappeared – a claim that doesn’t match reality, as grocery prices have actually jumped 0.5% in two of the past three months and are up 2.4% from a year ago. Powell’s comments often thread the needle between deft discretion and speaking truth to power, as well as informing the public.
The Fed leader is steadfast in his approach, suggesting that the president’s social media pressure campaign is falling on deaf ears. Powell continues to play a longer game, focused on economic stability rather than political points. And for a president who likes to get his way, Powell’s patient, data-driven approach has proven frustrating.
Defending the Fed’s Independence
The tension between Powell and Trump comes at a critical juncture for the independence of the Federal Reserve. With the Supreme Court currently considering cases related to Trump’s firing of officials at Wilcox and Harris, constitutional scholars are watching closely to see if the Court might overturn the precedent set in the 1935 Humphreys Executor v. United States case, which established limitations on a president’s power to remove independent agency heads.
A ruling that expands presidential firing power could potentially endanger Powell’s position before his term officially ends next year. This adds another layer of significance to Powell’s current stance: he’s not just defending monetary policy but the very independence of the Federal Reserve itself.
Powell’s February testimony to Congress subtly reinforced this point:
We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission.
The subtext is clear – the Fed serves the American people, not any single president’s political agendas.
What Trump seems to misunderstand is that politicizing the Federal Reserve would have catastrophic consequences for America’s financial standing globally. The Fed’s credibility as an independent central bank is a cornerstone of the dollar’s global reserve currency status. Lowering rates prematurely could undermine the Fed’s hard-won progress on inflation and destabilize financial markets, even beyond the uncertainty created by Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.
The Waiting Game
While parts of Wall Street currently project possible rate cuts starting as early as July, some economists believe the Fed may hold off until December, especially as the full impact of Trump’s tariffs and other moves becomes clearer. Additionally, some analysts have even suggested that the White House’s pressure campaign has created the exact opposite effect from what Trump intended, as calling for cuts may only make the Fed less likely or even less able to do them.
Amidst all this economic roiling, what has remained unmistakable is that Powell cannot be bullied. The Fed Chair’s commentary continually indicates that the president’s demands will not supersede economic indicators. Powell is likely focused on economic stability rather than scoring political points.
The Fed Chair appears to be clear-eyed and not easily rocked into overreaction or partisan understatement. By repeatedly refusing to engage in political commentary, Powell also maintains the Fed’s dignity while simultaneously strengthening his implicit message. His approach elevates the discourse above the current political fray, focusing on economic principles rather than personalities.
The Art of the Unspoken Message
Over these last months and years, Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has made a careful and smart display of central banking diplomacy. He manages to send a clear message to the White House without truly confronting Trump head-on. When asked during previous press conferences about external pressures, Powell has consistently redirected conversations to economic fundamentals and the Fed’s mandate.
“We articulated the substantial, further progress test at our December meeting,” Powell noted at an earlier press conference.
We’re going to act on actual data, not on a forecast, and we’re just going to need to see more data. It’s no more complicated than that.
These words still ring true today, many months later.
As markets digest Powell’s recent statements, one thing remains abundantly clear: the Fed will lower rates when economic conditions justify it, not when presidential tweets demand it. Through calm persistence and unwavering focus on empirics, Powell presents his powerful message without saying it directly: the Federal Reserve’s independence is non-negotiable, its mission is to serve the American economy as a whole, and its financial decisions will be made on its timetable, not that of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Curtis Scoon is the founder of ScoonTv.com Download the ScoonTv App to join our weekly livestream every Tuesday @ 8pm EST!
