Russia Absorbs Blows, Ukraine Escalates
By Nikola Mikovic
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed here are those of the authors. View more opinion on ScoonTV
Although Russia and Ukraine simulate participation in a peace process, in reality, both sides are taking actions that prolong the war, now in its fourth year. Kyiv is intensifying drone and missile attacks deep into Russian territory, while the Russian military continues to make tactical gains by capturing villages in northern and eastern Ukraine.
On June 1, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched a massive attack on Russian strategic bomber aircraft at Belaya Air Base in the Irkutsk region of Siberia – approximately 3,500 miles from the Ukrainian border. According to German Major General Christian Freuding, Ukraine managed to damage approximately 10 percent of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet.
One year ago, on May 27, 2024, a Ukrainian drone targeted a Russian long-range radar – part of the country’s ballistic missile early warning system – near the city of Orsk in the Orenburg region, some 930 miles from the closest territory held by Kyiv’s forces. Despite harsh threats, the Kremlin never seriously responded to any of these attacks.
Although Ukrainian actions are unlikely to have a decisive impact on the battlefield situation, at least in the short term, they seem to aim to inflict serious damage on Russian strategic aviation and defense systems in the event of a potential direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia. At the same time, such attacks seriously damage Russia’s reputation in the international arena.
Ukraine Strikes Russia With Impunity
The very fact that none of Russia’s nominal allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is willing to assist Moscow against Ukrainian attacks – even though Article 4 of the CSTO Treaty states that “an act of aggression (an armed attack that threatens security, stability, territorial integrity, and sovereignty) against one member state will be considered an act of aggression against all member states” – suggests that the Kremlin is on its own in this war. Russia can count on limited assistance from Iran and North Korea, while Kyiv remains firmly backed by NATO, fully aware that it can carry out strikes on Russian territory with relative impunity.
That is why Ukraine continues to attack Russian military plants, bridges, airfields, bases, and other infrastructure daily. Russia also strikes Ukrainian territory with Shahed drones every night, although the specific targets and damage caused remain unclear. Ukraine claims Russia targets schools and hospitals, which we know isn’t true based on the low civilian losses in this war, but we don’t know exactly what Russia is hitting either. Unlike Ukraine, Russia doesn’t fight its war on social media.
In Ukraine, filming the aftermath of airstrikes is strictly forbidden. Anyone who posts footage of damaged Ukrainian military facilities risks a lengthy prison sentence. Russia – unlike Ukraine – is not formally at war, but is conducting a “special military operation.” As a result, videos showing the impacts of Ukrainian strikes are widely available online. This creates a significant media victory for Kyiv, as the international audience can see exactly what Ukrainian forces have targeted in Russia, while the same transparency does not exist regarding Russian attacks in Ukraine.
Russia, on the other hand, continues making small tactical gains, capturing villages in Ukraine’s Sumy region, allegedly aiming to create a buffer zone to protect its Kursk region from potential new Ukrainian incursions. Its military has also reportedly entered Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Ukraine appears unable to stop the inertia of the Russian advance that slowly but surely continues to take its territory. Offensively, Ukraine cannot reverse these gains, and the only way it seems able to strike back is to buy time and inflict limited damage on Russia’s infrastructure. Since every town lost to Russia is likely never coming back, this isn’t a favorable or sustainable trade-off for Ukraine.
Such Ukrainian actions seem to have been one of the topics discussed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart, Donald Trump, on June 4. Although Putin vowed to respond to Ukrainian attacks on Russian military bases, he did not miss the opportunity to emphasize that Kyiv “tried to disrupt the negotiations, but Moscow did not give in to these provocations.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used the very same rhetoric saying that it is important “not to give in to Kyiv’s latest provocations aimed at disrupting the negotiations.”
Russia Negotiates With “Terrorists”
Putin’s and Lavrov’s statements represent a green light for Kyiv to continue striking Russian territory, as Moscow will not “fall for provocations” but will continue “negotiating” at any cost. Putin, however, casts doubt on future negotiations with Ukrainian leaders, accusing them of being “terrorists.” Still, given that Russia has never declared Ukraine a terrorist state, nor its Security Service (SBU) a terrorist organization, the Kremlin will almost certainly continue holding summits with those it publicly labels as “terrorists”.
Meanwhile, Ukraine will undoubtedly continue striking Russian military facilities and infrastructure. The Kremlin, on the other hand, repeatedly refuses to strike any bridges over the Dnieper River in Ukraine or to assassinate Ukrainian military and political leadership. Back in 2023, the former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said that Putin had promised him he would not try to kill Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. So far, he appears to have honored that commitment.
Putin is also showing a remarkable degree of tolerance toward Western actions in Ukraine. Amid the ongoing war, German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has built a factory in the Eastern European country that is now producing shells for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Given that the Kremlin has not even attempted to destroy the facility, French company Renault is taking a similar approach and plans to begin making drones in Ukraine.
Moscow, therefore, does not seem to be taking any resolute measures to defeat its opponent, which encourages the West to continue arming and funding Ukraine for as long as necessary. Instead, Putin accuses Ukrainian leaders of “lacking even basic political culture”, claiming that they “allowed themselves to directly insult those they are trying to negotiate with.”
Indeed, Ukrainian officials not only directly insult Putin but also publicly humiliate the Russian Federation and its armed forces by attacking the Russian nuclear triad, as well as the country’s military and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine is showing that it did not take Putin’s 2024 Oreshnik hypersonic threat seriously, as it is fully aware that there are certain “red lines” that the Kremlin will not dare to cross, regardless of Kyiv’s actions. This is a dangerous belief. It relies upon hoping your enemy acts as you want them to. And that never happens in war. Escalation happens in the blink of an eye, and Putin is facing growing pressure at home, not to end the war, but to take the gloves off and destroy Ukraine.
Trump Holds the Cards
If Russia is out of line, you will be amazed how tough I’ll be,
Trump said on June 5, clearly demonstrating that, in his mind, he holds significant leverage over Putin.
Previously, on May 27, he openly warned Putin of serious consequences if the Russian leader continues to “play with fire.”
What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean really bad,
Trump wrote on his Truth Social network.
Putin seems to have received the message, which is why he repeatedly emphasizes that he will continue negotiating with Ukraine, no matter what Kyiv does. In reality, however, the “peace talks” in Istanbul have not produced any progress, nor are they likely to until one of the two parties suffers a significant defeat on the battlefield. And we are still far from such an outcome. Right now, neither side truely wants peace.
In the meantime, the war will go on, as well as the simulation of the negotiation process. A real peace can come either after serious military successes by Russia that threaten Ukraine’s very existence (or if Kyiv’s actions weaken the Russian military to the point that it can no longer continue its operations), or as a result of Trump forcing Ukraine to accept Russian conditions.
At this point, none of these options seems realistic, which means that Russia and Ukraine will remain engaged in a long war of attrition. Ukraine is going to lose that war. The only remaining questions are will Donald Trump allow this to hang over all four years of his presidency, and how much damage will be done to Ukraine before that fact is confirmed in a deal.
Curtis Scoon is the founder of ScoonTv.com Download the ScoonTv App to join our weekly livestream every Tuesday @ 8pm EST!
