Global money growth will remain under pressure while China refrains from comprehensive easing, posing a potential secular headwind for risk assets and economic growth around the world.
Money makes the world go round. Nowhere is that more true than in markets. No money, no liquidity, no transactions. Any impediments to money are thus a big deal for asset prices and economies.
Money has been in great abundance for most of the last 20 years. But that is in large part due to China. Its current travails therefore pose a significant risk to money’s path in the coming months and years.
China’s dominance in global money trends can be seen in the chart below. Since 2007, China’s M1 in dollar terms has hugely outpaced GDP-weighted M1 in the rest of the world. M1 in China is 67 trillion CNY, or $9.5 trillion, while M1 in the US, the country with the second largest stock of narrow money after China, is 30% lower, despite an economy that is a third bigger than China’s.